Week of —. NOAA OISST, 1991–2020 base. El Niño threshold +0.5 °C.
2026 against the great El Niños
Weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly, the index NOAA and PAGASA use to measure El Niño. Each line is one event year, January through the following March. 2026 has outrun 1997 and 2015 at the same point in the calendar.
Four Niño regions
Last 60 weeks, °C anomaly. The east (1+2, off Peru) runs hottest.
Relative ONI
Overlapping 3-month seasons. NOAA's official strength measure since 2025.
Rainfall against normal
Monthly rain at 19 stations as a percentage of the 1991–2020 average, classified the way PAGASA does: dry condition, dry spell, drought. Tap a station.
Rainfall is ERA5 reanalysis from Open-Meteo on a ~25 km grid, not PAGASA gauge data, so it can differ from official station reports. Only complete months are classified. Below normal = 40–80% of average; way below = under 40%. Dry condition: 2 months below. Dry spell: 3 months below or 2 way below. Drought: 5 months below or 3 way below.
Angat Dam, Metro Manila's tap
Angat supplies about 90% of Metro Manila's water. It fell to an all-time low in July, then recovered with the habagat. PAGASA says it needs to reach about 210 m by year-end to avoid a 2027 shortage.
Thresholds: critical 160 m, minimum operating 180 m, normal high 210 m. Dam readings aren't published as an open data feed, so this panel shows the latest figure confirmed in news reports. Today's level: PAGASA dam information.
PAGASA's alert path, 2026
How the national warning has climbed since La Niña ended in March.
Outlook to mid-2027
El Niño peaks in the ocean around November to January, but the Philippines usually feels it hardest in the dry season that follows, from February to May.
What it means here
PAGASA Iloilo expects dry conditions, dry spells and drought across almost the entire region, with Capiz likely to follow. In the 1997–98 super El Niño, sugarcane yields fell about 25%. In April 2024, Iloilo City moved to declare a state of calamity over water supply.
GMA Regional TV; Inquirer; RapplerDepartment of Agriculture worst case: about 3.5% of the annual rice target lost to a strong El Niño. Most exposed: Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Western Mindoro, Central Mindanao.
DA via GMA NewsFewer cyclones are expected to form or enter PAR during the event, but PAGASA warns some may still reach typhoon or super typhoon strength.
PAGASA climate outlookPAGASA forecast below-normal October rain over Luzon. By January–February 2027 almost all of CALABARZON is expected to be below normal.
PAGASA; Daily Tribune, 30 SepThe WMO multi-model mean for Niño 3.4 in Sep–Nov, peaking in Nov–Dec, with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing alongside it.
WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update, 3 SepThe southwest monsoon and passing cyclones can still bring locally above-normal rain, especially in western sections, while the wider trend turns dry.
PAGASA advisory, 23 Sep